First, I have to say thank you to someone. "T". Thank you, for the conversations. Thoughtful conversation seems to be a rarity these days. So many times it's all about shouting down the other guy while spouting the party line. Right or Left. As "T" would say: "That's all crap. It's CRAP!" So thank you, "T". You know who you are.
I had to give credit, because "T" made me realize something today in conversation. Basically, at this point I think we have a choice to make in Iraq. We can either:
A) Try to make Iraq like America, or
B) We can do business with them.
I don't think we can do both though, in the short term, and so we need to make a decision as to which is more important to us.
With A, it would seem, on the surface, that the Shia are the better choice. They are, in many ways, more liberal. They have women doctors, allow women to drive, attend school and so on. The other side of the Shia coin, is that they are beholden to various personalities in their religion, and these personalities are all in a competition to hate the west the most. The Sunnis, by comparison, do not let their women drive or be doctors and limit their work and education options, treating them in large part as if they were cattle for making babies and of not much more value than that. The other side of the Sunni coin though, is that they are not as outwardly tied to their religion, and their version of Islam is not as much a cult of personality.
Of course, by favoring one you infuriate the other and they start killing.
With B, it's a much less PC option. It in effect says we are only interested in the oil, and our people ARE giving blood for that oil (and corporate profits). But at the core of it, that is a big part of the truth. This is, as it always is, about economic strategic interests of nations. In short, money and resources. Nonetheless, we maintain a public fiction that this is about "freeing" Iraq, and this would be an admission that that public statement isn't the truth. That our foreign policy is not based on what's right for others, but on what's in our interest. Still, unlike option A, the choices are simpler with option B. You don't have to chose between two bad options. You go with whoever wins, which absent our presence would probably be the Sunnis because they are more educated, more disciplined and better at cowing the Shia. Witness the last 40 years in Iraq if you don't believe me. From a strategic interest perspective, it would be more like dealing with Saudi Arabia, and less like dealing with Iran. They are less religiously motivated and therefore far more amenable to doing business with the west. Yes, there's the 1% in Al-Queda or what have you. But that's 1% and they would be pretty ruthless in stamping them out too.
The thing is, the policies that got us where we are today are all predicated around public option A (in order to get to option B), which means backtracking to option B is made harder by the public reaction to the abandonment of our supposed "Fight for Freedom". It would be a repudiation of morality for reality, and that doesn't sit well with the public when so many of our finest have laid down their lives for a "higher purpose" or a "fight for freedom".
I am not cynical and don't mean to sound cynical, but I am speaking plainly. I am a realist. I believe if we do stick around long enough the civil war will burn itself out, and we will be the regional King makers. I believe that in itself is a viable reason to stay, as well as for us to act as a check on Chinese influence into the region. I also believe that regardless of Nancy Pelosi's public statements, the Democrats won't be withdrawing anyone anytime soon. At the end of the day, the Democrat leadership knows this is really all about business and the strategic interests of the US. They have as many defense contractors and oil companies in their districts, and as many vested reasons to maintain a solid American presence in this region until all the oil is gone.
That's not right. That's not left. That's just plain old reality. IMO. YMMV.
Regards,
-Bouncer-
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